Monitoring macroeconomic risks in Kenya

The Kenyan National Treasury was looking for ways to take into account macroeconomic risks in their fiscal planning.

As economic forecasts are always uncertain, a fiscal policy cannot be only build around one possible scenario. We need to give policymakers a sense of the range of possible outcomes.

Turning this highly technical subject into a easy-to-operate step of the budgeting process.

Develop a tool that can build probabilistic predictions and alternative scenarios from a previous forecast.

Evaluating tax expenditures in Tunisia

The Ministry of finance of Tunisia wanted to document tax expenditures to comply with the most recent fiscal legislation.

Tax expenditures are preferential tax treatments for specific groups or activities. They have the same impact on the budget than directs spendings but because of their nature, they are less scrutinized.

The exact definition of tax expenditure is still debated, leaving room for different interpretations and potentially the influence of interest groups.

Depending on data availability, not all financial impacts can be evaluated precisely.

Bring parties together to establish a common policy on tax expenditure that reflects the specificities of the Tunisian tax system as well as international best practices.

Capacity building on the estimation of the budgetary impact of tax expenditures.

Budget forecasting in Mauritania

The Budget Directorate of Mauritania wanted to improve the accuracy of budgetary forecasts.

Accurate budgetary forecasts are essential for fiscal policy, cash management, debt management.

Public finance aggregates are affected by many uncertain events, as we were reminded by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Most data is not available in real-time and is often partial.

Detailed analysis of past prediction errors.

Design a new forecasting tool based on the most recent data and sound economic assumptions.